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Conservative activists scrambling for a strategy to block Romney

Posted on January 11th, 2012 at 20:06 by John Sinteur in category: Indecision 2012 -- Write a comment


A near-panic has taken hold among some core conservative activists, who are now scrambling to devise a strategy to deny Mitt Romney the Republican presidential nomination.

Many of these activists see South Carolina’s primary on Jan. 21 as their last best hope of stopping Romney by consolidating in a united front against him. But many acknowledge that they have yet to figure out which of the remaining conservative rivals to rally behind and which should get out.

  1. Good luck with that. It’s hard to see Paul, Gingrich, or Santorum mutually lining up behind each other.

    While Romney is perceived to have “momentum”, it’s worth knowing that the early primaries before Super Tuesday all award delegates proportional to the vote. So unlike the past winner-takes-all situations, Romney has not collected all of Iowa & NH’s delegates.

    I looked at three places for delegate counts so far, but they don’t agree with each other; it appears delegates have not officially been pledged for IA and NH. Romney seems to have ~17, Santorum as many as 12-14, Ron Paul about 10. (See the results tables in Wikipedia.)

    While the assignment is still proportional, it actually seems there’s little reason to consolidate to one Romney challenger. Instead, the goal is to take as many votes as possible away from Romney, and the way to do that would be to have multiple alternatives that may appeal to different people. The time to unify behind one challenger is when the vote moves to winner-takes-all states.

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